2025 Spring Flood Outlook #1 - Updated February 13, 2025

Spring Flood Outlook #1 (released 2/13/25) 

Spring Flood Outlook #2 scheduled for 2/27/25

 Spring Flood Outlook #3 scheduled for 3/13/25

Key Points

• The spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River, and near to below normal for local tributary rivers across the NWS Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area

• Most factors that contribute to flooding, including soil moisture, snowpack and frost depth point to a decreased threat of spring flooding (see table below).

• Additional precipitation events and the rate of snowmelt in the upper Mississippi basin will be the main factors determining the severity of flooding this spring.

Details

Some factors contributing to the current decreased risk levels include: 

1. While a recent system brought a widespread snowpack to the region, low snow water equivalent and below normal precipitation throughout the local area and the headwater areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin will result in a lower-end flood risk at this time.

2. Below normal soil moisture levels in the local area will provide more potential storage for spring rains, especially when we thaw the frozen soils.

3. Currently, deep frozen soils locally and near the headwaters of the mainstem will result in less capacity for infiltration of spring rains/snow until melting begins.

4. Local streams are currently flowing at or below the normal levels.

Through the spring, impacts from these factors are expected to change. One of the biggest factors that will drive the flood threat this spring will be the spring precipitation that we receive, whether it be from rain or snow. This, combined with frozen grounds can lead to issues down the road, but current conditions do not favor a higher risk. Best to continue to monitor for any changes through the coming weeks.

Many factors are considered when determining the overall flood risk for the upcoming spring season.  The combination of these influences factor into the final determination. These factors are discussed in detail in the next few tabs and also in the Statistical Hydrological Outlook linked below.

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Use the links below to find the Graphical Probabilities and the Numerical Probabilities, respectively.
 

Graphical Hydrologic Outlooks	Spring Flood Risk One-Pager (PDF)   (Feb 13, 2025)	Statistical Hydrologic Outlook   (Feb 13, 2025)
Images below are examples which link to the Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt. Find all other locations in the Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area in the drop down menu below.       Select Location: Mississippi River at Dubuque L&D 11Mississippi River at DubuqueMississippi River at Bellvue L&D 12Mississippi River at Fulton L&D 13Mississippi River at CamancheMississippi River at Le Claire L&D 14Mississippi River at Rock Island L&D 15Mississippi River at Illinois City L&D 16Mississippi River at MuscatineMississippi River at New Boston L&D 17Mississippi River at KeithsburgMississippi River at Gladstone L&D 18Mississippi River at BurlingtonMississippi River at Keokuk L&D 19Mississippi River at Gregory LandingMaquoketa River at ManchesterMaquoketa River at MaquoketaWapsipinicon River at IndependenceWapsipinicon River at AnamosaWapsipinicon River at De WittCedar River at VintonCedar River at Cedar RapidsCedar River at ConesvilleIowa River at MarengoIowa River at Iowa CityIowa River at Lone TreeIowa River at Columbus JunctionIowa River at WapelloIowa River at OakvilleEnglish River at KalonaSkunk River at SigourneySkunk River at AugustaDes Moines River at KeosauquaDes Moines River at St FrancisvilleFox River at WaylandPecatonica River at FreeportRock River at ComoRock River at JoslinRock River at MolineGreen River at GeneseoLa Moine River at Colmar   Go

Current/Forecast River Conditions

Current Conditions	Forecast Conditions	Long-Range Outlooks

Link To National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) and Additional River Forecast Resources

Flood Category Definitions

• Minor Flooding - minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience.
• Moderate Flooding - some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations may be necessary.
• Major Flooding - extensive inundation of structures and both primary and secondary roads. Usually significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.  

What Are The Risk Factors For Flooding? 

Many factors are have been considered when determining the overall flood risk for the Spring, with the combination of these influences factoring into the final determination. These factors are discussed in detail below.

Seasonal Precipitation

Precipitation in eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri has been largely below normal so far this 
winter. Recent snow received throughout the area will alleviate some of this, but some are likely to remain below
normal. With that, much of the HSA, especially eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, remains Abnormally Dry or in
a Moderate Drought due to well below normal precipitation observed since the fall months in 2024. This is also
reflected well in soil moisture levels, which remain near to below normal. North of the area, precipitation in the 
upper Mississippi River Basin so fart his winter has averaged below normal, aside from parts of far northern 
Minnesota, which were slightly above normal.

Latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) favor below normal precipitation through the second half
of February for all of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. With dry soils and ongoing drought, any further precipitation
should be allowed to infiltrate into the ground once we start to lose some of the frost depth. Until then, much of the
late winter and early spring precipitation will translate to runoff, rather than easily infiltrate.

While current contributions from precipitation yield minimal impacts on local flooding, an increasingly active pattern
and storm track favorable for continued widespread precipitation will increase the flood risk, especially with frozen
grounds.

Below you will find graphics of the precipitation accumulated this winter season (left) and how this amount of moisture compares to normal in percentage (right). These graphics are courtesy of the Midwest Regional Climate Center.

River Conditions

Streamflow analysis from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) indicates the majority of the Upper Mississippi River watershed and tributary streamflows are near to below normal. Streamflows that are below normal levels would have more capacity to hold runoff from heavy rains.

Iowa	Illinois	Missouri

Soil Conditions

Given the continuation of below normal precipitation since the fall, soil moisture levels remain below normal. 
Latest analysis from the Climate Prediction Center shows soil moisture ranking profiles around 10-40% for
the majority of the HSA, with near normal soil conditions as we head towards the Mississippi headwaters. We
continue to see widespread Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Considering these factors, they favor a neutral to decreased threat for spring flooding, as drier soils 
will be better suited to soak in heavier rains once we lose the frost.

Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content

Recent snowfall has resulted in a widespread snowpack between 4-8 inches through parts of the Upper Mississippi 
River Valley, with a swath of upwards to 10-12 inches in our northern HSA, per the latest observations and 
analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). While this seems like a lot 
of snow, this generally equates to 0.25-0.50" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), resulting from higher snow to liquid
ratios. Thus, this current snow pack isn`t expected to have much of an impact on the flood threat throughout the 
area. Although, an active pattern is expected to continue, with more snow possible over the next one to two weeks.
Thus, the combination of increasing precipitation and frozen grounds may lead to flood concerns in the future due to 
much of this going to direct runoff, but at this time confidence remains low.

Current Snow Depth               Current Snow Water Equivalent

Images courtesy of the Midwest Regional Climate Center (MRCC) and National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

Frost Depth

The ground remains frozen throughout the Upper Mississippi River Valley, especially deep in some areas. Locally, 
we are seeing frost depth between 5-20 inches, with those near the headwaters of the Mississippi River 
observing 20-40 inches of frost depth. Locally, we have seen a reduction in frost depth over the last week, which
may start to alleviate some future flood concerns. Any frost depth can become problematic with further precipitation
this spring, prior to thaw, as much of the precipitation will fall as runoff, rather than infiltrate easily into the soil. 
This will be dependent on precipitation though, yielding a Neutral Threat to the overall flood threat.

Frost Depths - North Central River Forecast Center

Regional Frost Depths as of February 13, 2025

Ice Jam Flooding

Temperatures have been quite variable this winter, with stretches of cold resulting in plenty of river ice. Although,
there have been bouts of well above normal temperatures that have allowed for some of this ice to melt and/or
breakup. Bouts of very cold air are expected through the next week or two, which may allow for some ice
development, but without a prolonged period of extreme cold, the development of widespread river ice and ice jam 
flooding seems low at the moment. Will continue to message a Neutral to Decreased Threat for ice jam flooding 
this spring, focusing on the main threat being from a breakup jam.

River and Streamflow Information:

• National Weather Service: water.weather.gov
• US Geological Survey: water.usgs.gov/waterwatch
• Corps of Engineers: rivergages.com 

Flood safety and flood insurance information:

• NWS Flood Safety: www.floodsafety.noaa.gov
• National Flood Insurance Program: www.floodsmart.gov

Precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture information:

• National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center: www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
• NWS Graphical 7-Day Forecast: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php
• NWS Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• US Drought Portal: www.drought.gov 

Questions or Comments

If you have questions or comments about this spring flood and water resource outlook please contact:

National Weather Service Quad Cities Hydrology Team
9040 Harrison St
Davenport, IA 52806
Email: cr.dvn-hydro@noaa.gov